The globalization of the automotive industry is concentrated in the characteristics: First, the automotive industry chain, including investment, production, procurement, sales and after-sales service, research and development, and other major links of the increasingly global configuration. Second, the large-scale restructuring between giant automobile companies has formed the pattern of “6+3”. China has become the fastest growing market in the world and has a huge impact on the global automotive industry. At present, the overall profit rate of China's auto industry is higher than the international level. As the price of products declines, this is likely to reduce the profit rate of the industry. However, while the price drops, the cost and cost also have a large room for decline, and the total amount of profits. Indicators may be maintained and may even increase. It is expected that China will become the world's largest automobile consumer in the next 10 to 15 years and is expected to become the manufacturing center of the world's automobiles.
I. The trend of globalization of the automobile industry and the international pattern of automobile demand growth
The globalization of the automotive industry is concentrated in the characteristics: First, the automotive industry chain, including investment, production, procurement, sales and after-sales service, research and development, and other major links of the increasingly global configuration. For example, in the past, multinational companies established and maintained R&D institutions in their home countries, investing in ways to replicate products in target markets, and now adopt a way of distributing various functional activities and capabilities to global markets. This has led to the emergence of a new specialized division of labor collaboration model, especially the separation trend between vehicle assembly and component companies, more and more multinational companies of parts and components, between component companies and vehicle assembly enterprises. The network structure of the contract as a link is becoming more and more obvious. The global procurement of parts and components of vehicle manufacturing companies and the internationalization of the parts industry have blurred the “national characteristics” of automotive products, making them a typical global product. Second, the large-scale restructuring between giant automobile companies has formed the pattern of “6+3”, and the output of the 9 largest automobile groups has accounted for more than 80% of the world's automobile production. The large-scale restructuring of auto companies in the world has substantially changed the traditional methods of resource allocation, industry competition and industrial organization, and has brought severe challenges to the development strategies and related policies of the automobile industry in the past, especially in developing countries.
From the geographical distribution of automobile production and sales, the developed countries in Europe and the United States have generally experienced severe market weakness, while the situation in developing countries, especially in Asian countries, is promising. In Asia, South Korea, Thailand and China continue to be the highlights of the world automotive market with their good growth and great potential. It is predicted that from 2002 to 2010, global vehicle production will increase by 11 million units, and the Asia-Pacific region will add more than 7 million units, accounting for 65%, and half of them will come from China.
Second, the scale of China's auto industry and market structure changes in recent years
After more than 40 years of development, China's automobile industry has become an important industry in the national economy. With the continuous improvement of the level of economic development and the beginning of the car into the family, China has become the fastest growing market in the world, and has a huge influence on the global automotive industry. In 2002, the company produced 325 vehicles in total, an increase of 38.49% over the same period of 2001, and sales of 3.248 million vehicles, an increase of 37.1% over the same period of 2001. The industrial added value was 151.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 60.94. %. Automobile consumption has become the main force driving economic growth in 2002.
There are more than 120 automobile production plants with legal person status. In 2002, the production concentration of the three major automobile groups such as FAW, Dongfeng and SAIC was 57%, which was 8 percentage points higher than that in 2001. Due to the fierce entry and competition of Chinese cars, the top 3 Shanghai Volkswagen, FAW-Volkswagen and Shanghai General Motors It accounted for 53.4% of the total sales, which was 6.8 percentage points lower than the market share of the top three in 2001. The concentration of production of other types of vehicles generally declined to a certain extent compared with 2001. As far as the size of a single company is concerned, the top four auto manufacturers in China's auto industry, such as FAW, Dongfeng, SAIC and Changan, have a production capacity of 300,000-600,000 vehicles, and economies of scale are beginning to emerge. Despite this, compared with world-class automobile manufacturers, the scale of China's auto industry enterprises is still small.
The direct impact of fierce market competition, first, to promote the continuous decline in car prices, and finally reach a reasonable price; Second, the field of competition continues to expand, including not only product prices, quality, performance, but also marketing, after-sales service, Market resilience and other aspects; Third, technological progress, product development will become the focus of competition. Promoting the survival of the fittest through full and effective competition is unstoppable and will become the leading force driving the healthy development of the entire industry.
3. China's auto industry market space, investment opportunities and profit forecast
In the future, with the impact on the price of China's auto demand market, the income and consumption structure of residents, auto credit, and the improvement of the consumption environment, especially the auto joint ventures led by multinational corporations will continue to launch new products in the world to meet market demand. Products will play a huge role in promoting the future market. It is expected that China will grow into the world's largest auto market in the next 10-15 years, with annual sales reaching 17 million units and car ownership exceeding 100 million units.
In recent years, multinational companies have accelerated their pace of entering the Chinese market and promoted a new wave of mergers and acquisitions in the domestic auto industry. It is expected that the competition of multinational companies in China will become more intense in the future. The rapid expansion of domestic large automobile groups relying on multinational companies will further accelerate the merger and reorganization of various vehicle and component manufacturers, especially small and medium-sized enterprises. M&A opportunities will continue to emerge.
At present, the overall profit rate of China's auto industry is higher than the international level. As the price of products declines, this is likely to reduce the profit rate of the industry. However, while the price drops, the cost and cost also have a large room for decline. Total indicators such as totals may be maintained and may even increase. The state will further reduce some taxes and fees, and will provide price reduction space for most enterprises in the industry. If the scale of production and sales can be effectively expanded with the price reduction, the scale effect will be exerted, and the industry benefits will be maintained at a good level. At the same time, the decline in import tariffs on parts and components will cause some manufacturers to reduce their import costs, and the impact on medium-to-high-end products with more imported components will be more obvious. The car industry in China's auto industry is the fastest growing. Not only is the growth of output higher than that of the entire auto industry, but the pace of technological progress is also greatly accelerated. From the perspective of the whole industry, the profitability of cars, auto parts and accessories companies is at the leading level in the industry and has a higher return on investment.
Fourth, the development trend of China's automobile industry and industrial policy orientation
1. The development trend of China's auto industry
(1) China is expected to become the world's largest automobile consumer in the next 10 to 15 years. International experience shows that there is a significant correlation between per capita income levels and car penetration rates. China’s per capita GDP in 2002 was 7,972 yuan, which was equivalent to more than 910 US dollars at the official exchange rate, while the purchasing power parity method measured by the World Bank was close to 4,000 US dollars. In some developed cities and quite a few areas on the southeast coast, per capita GDP has reached four to five thousand dollars at the official exchange rate, showing a clear feature of entering the automobile society. It is expected that China will grow into the world's largest auto market with annual sales of 17 million units in the next 10 to 15 years.
(2) The production and consumption of automobiles will become an important force driving China's economic growth for a long time to come. The automotive industry is the industry with the widest coverage and the most widespread effects. For steel, non-ferrous metals, rubber, plastics, glass, paints and other raw materials industries, casting, forging, heat, welding, stamping, machining, painting, electroplating, testing, testing and other equipment manufacturing, machinery, electronics, electrical appliances, chemicals, Building materials, light industry, textile and other ancillary products and parts, road construction, energy industry, transportation and service industries will generate huge demand, thus promoting the development of these industries. It is estimated that the annual GDP increase in the next 10 years will be provided by the automotive industry from 1/7 to 1/6.
(3) China is expected to become the manufacturing center of the world's automobiles. China has initially formed a relatively complete production system for the automotive industry. This is the starting point for the new development of China's auto industry. In addition, China's development of the automotive industry has the following advantages: First, the market advantage of the big countries; Second, the labor cost advantage; Third, it has a strong manufacturing capacity. It is expected that in the next 10 to 15 years, China is expected to become one of the world's important automobile manufacturing bases.
2. China's future policy development of the automotive industry
(1) Create a domestic and competitive domestic competitive environment that is conducive to improving the international competitiveness of the automotive industry. All types of enterprises, especially private enterprises, should be encouraged to enter, actively attract foreign direct investment, especially direct investment by multinational corporations, give equal opportunities to enterprises of different natures, and form a strong market competition through the market competition process of survival of the fittest. The structure has driven the fundamental improvement of the international competitiveness of China's automobile industry and enterprises.
(2) Reform and restructuring are the basic policy orientations of China's automobile industry organization in the new era. On the basis of openness and competition, promote the restructuring and restructuring of Chinese auto companies. In the process of restructuring, we must adopt a variety of methods to solve the historical problems left by the prevailing enterprises, such as the society, overstaffing, heavy debt burden, and imperfect social security system, promote the diversification of corporate property rights, and establish an effective corporate governance mechanism. Corporate restructuring can be promoted in the following aspects: First, integrate automobile resources to increase the stock of reserves and increase the utilization rate of automobile industry assets; second, further strengthen cooperation with automobile multinationals; third, promote state-owned enterprises and non-state-owned enterprises. The fourth is to adopt different restructuring strategies for different types of automobile products; the fifth is to emphasize the relaxation of entry restrictions while vigorously eliminating the barriers to exit; the sixth is to actively use the capital market to promote industrial restructuring.
(3) Do something and do something wrong. Gradually integrate into the global automotive manufacturing division system during the opening period. The transformation of the automobile industry chain configuration mainly relies on the domestic market and domestic resources, and gradually integrates into the global procurement, manufacturing, sales and R&D systems of the automobile industry in stages, and gradually advances to the high-end areas. In the whole vehicle, there are some products that have the advantages of market and resources; we should make full use of the multi-level of the Chinese market to produce medium and low-grade cars as the strategic focus of the automobile industry in the future, and gradually realize the scale advantage. And cost advantages, while occupying the domestic market while occupying neighboring developing countries; at the same time, we must use the existing labor advantage to support domestic demanding component manufacturers to supply the world as soon as possible