US President-elect Trump has repeatedly claimed on various occasions to reinvigorate US manufacturing since the campaign began. On December 21st, the White House National Trade Commission was announced. According to the Trump transition team, the move “shows the determination of the President to revitalize the US manufacturing industry and give every American a chance to obtain decent jobs and decent wages. . "So, what is the real situation of the US manufacturing industry? Compared with the United States, where is the gap in China's manufacturing industry? In the face of Trump's aggressive posture, how should China's manufacturing industry face it?
First, the current situation of the US manufacturing industry
(1) The manufacturing industry is slowly recovering after the financial crisis
According to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, US manufacturing accounted for 12.1% of GDP in 2015. The US manufacturing industry contributed $2.17 trillion to the US economy throughout 2015, compared to $1.7 trillion in the second quarter of 2009. During this period, the value added of durable goods manufacturing increased from 0.87 trillion US dollars to 1.18 trillion US dollars, and the value added of non-durable goods manufacturing increased from 0.85 trillion US dollars to 0.99 trillion US dollars.
(2) The manufacturing sector has the highest multiplier effect
According to the calculation of the IMPLAN model, for every US dollar invested in the US manufacturing industry, the economy will grow by $1.81, with the highest multiplier effect in all economic sectors. In addition, every employee employed in the manufacturing sector will lead to employment in four other departments. At the same time, research by the US Alliance of Production and Innovation Manufacturers shows that the impact of manufacturing on the economy is even greater than taking into account the entire manufacturing value chain and the impact of manufacturing on supply chains in other industries. This approach estimates that manufacturing accounts for one-third of GDP and employment. Based on this, it is estimated that the multiplier effect of the manufacturing US$1 output is US$3.6, and every employee employed in the manufacturing sector will drive the employment of 3.4 people in other sectors.
(3) Productivity in the manufacturing sector has been increasing
According to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, in the past few decades, American manufacturers have experienced tremendous growth, making them more globally competitive. Since 1987, the hourly output of the manufacturing sector has increased by 2.5 times, while the output per hour of all non-agricultural industries in the United States has only increased by 1.7 times. It is worth mentioning that the labor productivity of the durable goods manufacturing sector has almost tripled. Since the financial crisis, the labor cost per unit of manufacturing has fallen by 8.4%, and the decline in the durable goods sector has been even greater.
(4) R&D investment in the manufacturing sector continues to grow
According to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, the manufacturing sector accounts for more than three-quarters of all private sector investment and is more innovative than any other sector. R&D spending in the manufacturing sector increased from $126.2 billion in 2000 to $229.9 billion in 2014. According to the latest data, the pharmaceutical industry accounts for one-third of all manufacturing R&D investment. In 2014, the investment was 74.9 billion US dollars. Aerospace, chemical, computer, electronics, and automobiles and parts also accounted for R&D investment. important position.
(5) The total number of workers in the manufacturing sector continues to increase
According to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the total number of manufacturing workers in the United States reached 12.3 million, accounting for 9% of the total US workforce. Among them, there are a total of 7.7 million in the durable goods manufacturing industry and 4.6 million in the non-durable goods manufacturing industry. Since the end of the financial crisis, manufacturers have hired more than 800,000 workers.
(6) FDI in the manufacturing sector has doubled in ten years
According to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, US foreign direct investment (FDI) in manufacturing exceeded $1.2 trillion for the first time in 2015. In the past decade, foreign direct investment in US manufacturing has doubled, from 4,999 in 2005. US$100 million grew to $1.2 trillion in 2015.
Second, compared with the United States, the main problems of Chinese manufacturing industry
(1) Innovative research and development capabilities are weak
First, Thomson Reuters released the 2015 “Global Top 100 Innovative Organizations” list without a Chinese company. Secondly, the average ratio of China's manufacturing industry's top 500 research and development expenses to operating income in 2012 was only 1.87%. In 2013, China's R&D expenditure of manufacturing enterprises above designated size accounted for only 0.85% of the main business income. Third, China's manufacturing R&D investment intensity is 1.1, while the US is 4.0, Japan is 3.4, Germany is 2.3, and South Korea is 1.9. Finally, China's high-tech industry R&D expenditures accounted for 26.3% of manufacturing R&D expenditures, down from 73.3% in the US, 41.2% in Japan, 34.3% in Germany, and 58.7% in South Korea.
(II) Inefficient input and output
First, in 2012, China's manufacturing labor productivity was $152,000, compared with $370,000 in the United States, $305,000 in Japan, and $304,000 in Germany. Secondly, in 2012, China's high-tech industry's main business income accounted for only 12.7% of the manufacturing industry, lower than South Korea's 19.2%, the United States' 15.0%, France's 15.1%, and the United Kingdom's 14.1%. Finally, during the “Eleventh Five-Year” period, China’s average industrial value-added rate was 25.6%, which fell in the past two years, less than 23%, compared with 35% to 40% in developed countries. %, the United States, Germany, Japan even more than 45%.
(3) The product quality level is not high
First of all, the 2013 National Manufacturing Quality Competitiveness Index shows that the quality competitiveness index of manufacturing enterprises above designated size is 83.14, and the growth rate has been declining in recent years. Secondly, the quality level of China's manufacturing industry in 2013 was 85.55, down 0.77 from 2012, while the quality management level, quality supervision and inspection level dropped by 2.62 and 1.52 respectively. Third, China's leading quality international standards account for less than 0.5%, and the standard update rate is slow. Finally, there are still problems in China's enterprises that the quality of the management system is not high and the application of quality management methods is not satisfactory.
(4) The number of world brands is small
On the one hand, from the list of the 2015 World Brand Top 500 compiled by the World Brand Lab, there are 228 in the United States, 44 in the United Kingdom, 42 in France, and 37 in Japan. Thirty-one brands were selected, but the energy-related enterprise brands, Lenovo, Haier, Huawei, Changhong and other related industries, the number is significantly less. On the other hand, from the list of “Best Global Brands” published by Interbrand, the most influential brand consulting company, China’s top 100 companies were selected for the first time in the world in 2014.
Third, China's response policy
(1) Using innovation as a driving force for development
Implementing the spirit of the "National Innovation Driven Development Strategy Outline" and "Made in China 2025" documents, regard innovation as the first driving force for development, accelerate the deep integration of industrialization and informatization, and digitize, network, intelligent and green As a technical basis for enhancing industrial competitiveness; continue to implement industrial transformation and upgrading of strong foundation projects and industrial product quality improvement action plans, preferably a number of parts manufacturing enterprises, carry out independent research and development, testing and manufacturing of key components, so that product stability and reliability Indicators such as sex and applicability have reached the international advanced level.
(II) Improving the quality of manufacturing industry
First, improve enterprise quality tracking and monitoring capabilities to achieve product lifecycle management including requirements gathering, concept determination, product design, product launch, and product market lifecycle. Secondly, carry out quality management training and coaching, and effectively plan, organize, coordinate, control and test all production factors including personnel, equipment, materials, methods, environment and information. Finally, organize leading demonstration enterprise selection activities to guide and motivate companies to implement high performance, Six Sigma, Lean Production and other models to improve quality.
(3) Creating a manufacturing regulatory ecosystem
First, establish and improve the quality standard system, quality certification system, quality inspection and inspection system, safety early warning and rapid response system, and form a quality and safety management system throughout the product design and development, production, inspection, sales and delivery. Secondly, promote the construction of quality credit system, establish a blacklist of quality untrustworthiness and announce it to the public, and increase efforts to crack down on and punish quality violations and counterfeit brands. Finally, support third-party organizations to participate in quality supervision, and implement mutual recognition and mutual protection of product quality inspection results and brand evaluation.
(4) Building a Chinese-made world brand
First, improve the relevant national standards for brand evaluation, formulate operational norms; participate in the formulation of international standards related to brand evaluation, and promote the establishment of a global unified brand evaluation system. Secondly, support the establishment of third-party institutions for brand building and provide professional services in design, marketing and consulting. Third, in accordance with the development ideas from product to industry, establish a superior brand selection mechanism. Finally, support various domestic and foreign media to promote Chinese manufacturing brands, and regularly hold Chinese manufacturing brand exhibitions and promotion conferences in important markets at home and abroad.